Fwd: [FOSSEd Discussion] Harvard Study - Linux vs. Microsoft

[Bryant Patten]

[I sent this off to the international FOSS and Education mailing list 
and then decided it is relevant to this list as well.  Apologies to any 
dual subscribers.   - Bryant]

Dynamic Mixed Duopoly: A Model Motivated by Linux vs. Windows
	[Interview with authors at - http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/4834.html]

Begin forwarded message:

> From: Bryant Patten <bmp at fossed.org>
> Date: September 11, 2006 12:50:26 AM EDT
> To: Open Source and Education <discussion at fossed.org>
> Subject: [FOSSEd Discussion] Harvard Linux vs. Microsoft Study
> Reply-To: Open Source and Education <discussion at fossed.org>
>
> Dynamic Mixed Duopoly: A Model Motivated by Linux vs. Windows
> 	[Interview with authors at - http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/4834.html]
>
> Okay - so I find lots about this interview fascinating (don't have
> access to the study).  Perhaps the most fascinating is that Harvard is
> asking this question.
>
> Here is the summary:
>
> "Ultimately, the authors believe, neither side is likely to be forced
> from the battlefield—Microsoft has too much market share and OSS offers
> too many benefits for users. But there are strategies each can use
> successfully against the other, as they detail in this e-mail
> interview."
>
>
> But there are a few fascinating tidbits (IMHO) relevant to the focus of
> this mailing list (FOSS and Education):
>
> "...Having obtained this basic result, we investigate the conditions
> that will warrant that Linux ends up forcing Windows out. We do this by
> modifying the model in two ways. First of all, we look at the effect of
> having buyers such as governments and some large corporations committed
> to deployment of Linux in their organizations. We call such buyers
> strategic. In addition to cost-related reasons, governments back Linux
> because having access to the source code allows them to verify that
> sensitive data is treated securely. Binary code makes it hard to figure
> out who has access to information flowing in a network. Companies such
> as IBM, in contrast, back Linux because they see in OSS one way to
> diminish Microsoft's dominance. We find that the presence of strategic
> buyers together with Linux's sufficiently strong demand-side learning
> results in Windows being driven out of the market. This may be one main
> reason why Microsoft has been providing chunks of Windows' source code
> to governments."
>
> So government (and in this case I would strongly add schools as a
> particularly important part of government) adoption results in a
> Windows loss.
>
> "...Second, we look at the role of cost asymmetries. In the base model
> we assume that the cost structures of Windows and Linux for the
> development, distribution, and support of software coincide. A natural
> question is then whether the central result that Windows survives in
> the long-run equilibrium regardless of the speed of Linux's demand-side
> learning persists if there are cost asymmetries. We find that because
> OSS implies lower profits for Microsoft, the larger the cost
> differences are between Linux and Windows, the less able Microsoft is
> to guarantee the survival of Windows."
>
> My graduate background is in computer simulation and believe me, the
> results of these models is significantly directed by the underlying
> assumptions.  I strongly question their decision to have 'the
> development, distribution and support' costs coincide on the base
> model.  Other questions to investigate
> 1)While they seem to invoke the value of the MS Office suite, they make
> no reference to the hundreds (thousands) of free FOSS programs.
> 2) How does the emerging international user community figure into all
> this?
> 3) The only FOSS benefit he discusses is demand-side learning - the
> ability to modify code.
>
> The interviewer asked " From your modelling, what can Microsoft do
> strategically to remain competitive against a product that is argued to
> be of better quality, is updated more frequently, and is free?"  and
> after essentially saying become more FOSS-like, another  part of the
> response was:
>
> 	"Price discriminate. Give Windows and applications away to schools and
> universities so that users build their file libraries on Microsoft, not
> Linux."
>
> And finally I love the following line, buried in the middle of a
> paragraph:
>
> "... We find that while a monopoly of Linux is always preferable (from
> the point of view of societal welfare) to a Windows monopoly,..."
>
> Which makes me think of the Jim Wales quotes that Kathryn brought to
> this list:
>
> "I would like to think education is a precursor to everything that is
> to come in life. Schools are places for education and that means more
> than simply providing training in software packages."
>
>          and
>
>          "Schools are places where our values and philosophies are on
> show.
> They are places where we create and recreate society."
>
> Obviously preaching to the choir here but FOSS and Education is SUCH an
> important issue....
>
> Bryant
>
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