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Re: [K12OSN] Privacy vs vendor support



On Thu, Jul 03, 2003 at 09:53:02AM -0400, Access Systems wrote:
> On Wed, 2 Jul 2003, Eric Harrison wrote:
> > One of the interesting problems we face when talking with vendors is 
> > that they ask for number of users. Since it's open source, we don't
> > really have any idea. We can tell them how many downloads we've had off
> > our servers, but not off the various mirrors, or how many have been
> > burned onto CDs and handed out, etc, etc.
> 
> In my "real" job I have to do a lot of statistical modeling,  with a few
> samples and regular proving of the sampling we could probably be just as
> accurate as people who count "licenses" but have no idea how many are
> actually being used and/or prirated

Or even more accurate since they often base their analysis on what the 
vendors "say" they are selling.  :-)  
> 
> > We can see how many people are on the K12OSN list (850 last time I checked).
> > We can see how many sites are syncing to the SquidGuard web filter black
> > lists (~2,500). But we don't really know that the installed base of K12LTSP
> > happens to be.
> 
> if we know from 8 folks who give us some very detailed information that
> each list user z (850) has an average of x servers (3) and each server
> handles y number of workstations  (20) we would then know that X x Y x Z
> equals number of users "A" (51,000) and this number is 20% of the
> installed user base meaning there are 255,000 users nationwide.
> 
> > I'm a big privacy advocate myself, so I'm not very fond of the idea of
> > installing spyware. On the other hand, it is really hard to get vendors
> > to listen to us if we can't give them some sort of reasonable numbers.
> 
> no spyware and you get numbers that are accurate within 1-5 percentage
> points.  good enough for most vendors.  and no privacy problems
> 
> start by asking the list to volunteer raw numbers. then extrapolate that
> out to the whole list and go from there..

The points about calculations and extrapolation above are excellent.
In fact I can attest to the fact that market research firms such as IDC,
Gartner, Forrester etc.. all use those techniques, (as well as other),
when estimating markets.

I'd be happy to keep a running count and do some analysis of the
numbers if anyone wants to post their information.  You can post it to
the list or if you desire confidentiality send it to me off-list.

I'll post the summary info to the list. (and access systems can
do a technical review :-) )

Any info I receive off-list will be kept private. Also - Please don't
restrict this information to just K12LTSP installs.  Any site using 
Linux, BSD or any form of UNIX add to the market potential for 
vendors like AR.


If you want to participate please include this info:
To prevent double counting please include your school district
and what schools within that district you are reporting for.

School district:
What schools at that district:

Any information which you don't really know, either give
your best estimate or enter "NA".

# of LTSP(K12 or otherwise) desktops currently
# of LTSP(K12 or otherwise) desktops site had 3 years ago
# of LTSP(K12 or otherwise) desktops site will add next year
# of plain old Linux/BSD/other *NIX desktops
# of plain old Linux/BSD/other *NIX desktops site had 3 years ago
# of plain old Linux/BSD/other *NIX desktops site will ad next year
# of K12LTSP servers currently
# of K12LTSP servers site had 3 years ago
# of K12LTSP servers site will add next year
# of other Linux/BSD/*NIX servers currently
# of other Linux/BSD/*NIX servers site had 3 years ago
# of other Linux/BSD/*NIX servers site will add next year

What other items should we look at?  Amounts of money each site
saved?  Expected budget reductions putting financial pressure on 
paying for annual MS license renewals. (MS is moving to annual fees for
ALL their licensing. )



-- 
Jeff Kinz, Open-PC, Emergent Research,  Hudson, MA.  jkinz kinz org
copyright 2003.  Use is restricted. Any use is an 
acceptance of the offer at http://www.kinz.org/policy.html.
Don't forget to change your password often.




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