[Octa-list] Now Apple must show what’s next after iPhone X

Vitaliy Katsenelson writeus at contrarianedge.com
Thu Jun 7 17:04:50 UTC 2018

Can't see images? Click here! Dear Reader, I hope you enjoy this article. - Vitaliy Watercolor is by my father, Naum Katsenelson Now Apple must show what’s next after iPhone X By Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA The iPhone X is likely to be a phenomenal success for Apple. But its success will not be driven by anything new that the new phone packs inside. Instead, its success will be based on the phone’s screen size. Essentially, iPhone X provides the same screen real-estate as an iPhone Plus, but with the sleeker form factor of the iPhone 7 or 8. Apple has done a great job at changing the paradigm of our thinking about the iPhone. If you only care about making phone calls, then an iPhone 4 is good enough. Why pay for more? You probably don’t even need to upgrade your phone for years, as long as the battery keeps holding its charge. However, for most, the actual “phone” function is the least important of the iPhone. From an earnings perspective, iPhone X will be a tremendous boost. It will increase the average selling price per unit by a few hundred dollars, which should help not just sales, but profit margins as well. This is actually healthy for both Apple and the entire iPhone ecosystem (including DRAM and solid state drive makers — for example, we still have a large position in Micron Technology). People were also postponing buying new iPhones while waiting for the iPhone X; thus, the number of units sold will probably exceed most optimistic expectations. Then the question becomes, What is next? Higher-priced iPhones will also change the dynamics of the upgrade cycle. Apple is going to have a harder time convincing iFanatics to shell out $1,000-$1,200 every year (or even every two years). The upgrade cycle will likely be elongating to three or four years. Thus, any blow-out success of iPhone X in 2017 and early 2018 will be coming at the expense of future years. Even if you are a loyal Apple shareholder, you have to be prepared for this. Absent a new category of products, Apple is turning into a fully ripe stock. Yes, it will look statistically cheap based on 2018 earnings, but that will not be the case if you look at 2019 or 2020 earnings. As all the excitement subsides, Apple stock will have to answer an extremely important question: What is next? After all, the value of any business is a lot more than the earnings generated next year, but far beyond that. Pearl Fishers Today I want to share with you aria from Georges Bizet’s The Pearl Fishers. Bizet was a French composer, most famous for his opera Carmen. Every artist should really focus on pleasing himself with his work; the public is too fickle. Carmen is indisputably one of the most popular operas of the 20th Century; however, it was a failure during Bizet’s short lifetime – he died at 36. On the day of his funeral, Opéra-Comique staged a special performance of Carmen to honor the composer. The press, who had hated Carmen three months earlier, suddenly loved it. Bizet was praised as a genius. Click here to listen Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA Student of Life, CEO I am the CEO at Investment Management Associates, which is anything but your average investment firm. (Seriously, take a look.) I wrote two books on investing, which were published by John Wiley & Sons and have been translated into eight languages. (Even in Polish!) In a brief moment of senility, Forbes magazine called me “the new Benjamin Graham.” (They must have been impressed by the eloquence of the Polish translation.) Not receiving my investment articles? Sign up here. YOUR COMPANY NAME Your address Phone Number www.website.com You received this email because you purchased something from us or signed up to our mailing list. Unsubscribe
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