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Re: Latest UTB Newsletter

On Fri, 2003-03-14 at 16:48, joe wrote:
> Jef, substitute "database" for "game", rewind to
> 1998 and re-read your statements.
> Sounds really lame huh? the only difference is
> the 20-20 hindsight we now have about the db
> market - in 1998,  all the pundits made dire and
> negative predictions for linux as a database
> platform, just as you're now doing for linux as a
> gaming platform.

I dont have negative predictions...I have realistic ones.  And im not a
pundit, I am not learned, and my opinions hold not authoritative weight.
I'm just a small dog with a loud bark, who likes barking at other small
dogs, like you.

And no I don't think its lame really...how large is the current game
industry in terms of number of vendors and number of titles...compared
to the db industry? Where is the db market focused? Where is the game
industry focused..in terms of customerbase? How big of a customer base
is really needed for a gamehouse to be in the black? How big of a
customer base for a db vender?  You want to draw market comparisons,
that probably aren't that valid since game developers probably have to
sell far more volume per development dollar spent compared to database
vendors.  Or at least I don't think they are analagous in the way you
really want to make them out to be...but your timeline might sure be
dead on,1998-2003, and here we are seeing Red Hat focus on the market
segment databases vendors make their money on, the enterprise in 2003. 
It's a market maturity issue, and focusing on gaming too early is very
much a poor business decision.  So at best your timeline argument means
Red Hat will really be focusing on the home desktop market in 2005
abouts.Oracle put its first linux version out there in 1998, i
think...and quake3 client for linux came out in 1999/2000 so that would
put the timeline for Red Hat to look at gaming support at about
2005...which is what 4 Red Hat linux releases away or so at the current
pace of RHL development...not near term...and long enough for my comment
for you to hold yer breath while you wait for the market to really
blossom to have the desired result.

But I have to wonder, since Oracle introduced a linux db product in
1998..how much development support did Oracle end up providing to the
linux OS? How directly invested in linux's development has Oracle been?
Has Oracle added to the general open source development efforts. How
invested is the db vendors generally in open source development? Have
they reaped what they've sown? And I stand by my comment that gaming
will become important when the game software developers start investing
a modicum of development effort back into the open source environment
they will be making money on. Expecting someone like Red Hat to
bootstrap everything the game software company needs to live happy off
of like a parasite is a little naive. Game developers themselves will
have to become invested in the development of linux's potential as a
gaming platform. Game developers and hardware manufacturers are in the
position to profit in the linux gaming market, and as a result will be
the ones who will end up paying for some of the open source development
needed to turn that potential into a reality. 2005 is the mark.

-jef"I can only hold my breath for 1 year...not 2"spaleta

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